Quality management requires a vision - for the development of mankind

Autor: Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dr.h.c.* Dieter Deublein (Aidewise GmbH) *granted by Amansholov University Öskemen

Quality means innovation and precision. Innovation requires a vision. Precision requires above-average efforts.

In 1972 Meadows a.o. described and stated future scenarios in their book "Limits to Growth": fatal developments can be averted if people "turn the tide" and fundamentally change their behaviour.

Almost 50 years later, it can be seen that the world community was unable to agree on a new way of behaving. It remains now to trust that the development of mankind will follow the natural development of living beings.

 Fig.: Developement of mankind (Copyright: Aidewiese GmbH)

In nature, populations grow logistically; i.e. after an adaptation phase (lag phase), the population grows indefinitely in the exponential phase, approaches the limit of growth and then enters the stationary phase, a longer period of zero growth with much harmony.

It can be assumed that population growth will be the same. A large-scale nuclear war, a meteorite, a climate change with an intolerable rise in temperature, an epidemic, mental illnesses, soil erosion or something else could mean an abrupt end.

The transition period from the lag phase to the exponential growth phase lasted about 100 years from 1850 to 1950. The transition phase from exponential to stationary growth should take the same time.  The Paris Climate Agreement 2015 can be seen as the beginning of the transition phase: for the first time all countries of the world agree to introduce measures for change. The transition phase would then end in year 2115. This is a very short period of time for the drastic changes that are foreseeable.

According to the UN Population Division, 11 billion people will live on Earth in 2100. The sharpness of the prediction is still inaccurate. The birth rate will be 2.0 children per woman when the limits of growth are reached, life expectancy will be high. According to the UN, the average age of the world's population is expected to rise to 38.1 years by 2050.

Only a small proportion of people will survive in inhospitable regions, e.g. on the moon or planets.

In the stationary phase, people will come to terms with the situation. In many areas a balance plays itself out. There are no more changes and moving innovations. At the end of the long-lasting stationary phase, the apocalypse occurs when humans degenerate and are replaced by other then stronger living beings.

The population is densified in phases like in a train: at the beginning, passengers sit and stand loosely around. A slight impulse is enough to bring everyone a little closer together. Then they make more and more unwilling room for others. With each additional passenger a jolt goes through the train and everyone moves a little, or is pushed from the outside to move. The passengers get claustrophobia. Only then does nobody really fit into the train anymore and the stationary phase begins. Only someone can get on when a passenger gets off the Train.